1.1 – Damned Statistics
Mark Twain, the famous American writer and humorist, once wrote:
Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the [task of] arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
So what is it about statistics that makes them so problematic as to be considered almost worse than both lies and damned lies?
I will argue that part of the issue is that statistics are not understood very well by most people, including many of the people who use them. Yet, even with this potential misuse, statistics are used with a great enough frequency in scientific studies they are often viewed by many people as signifying accuracy or importance. In my experience, if I want to influence someone to believe an idea, I just simply have to preface the content I want them to believe with the phrase: “Statistics show…”
In many cases, the overuse, misuse, or misunderstanding of statistics is mostly harmless, and thus the joke:
84.88% of statistics are made up.
However, there are very important negative consequences for problematic statistical use and understanding, which is why people like Twain and Disraeli were so skeptical of them.
So does that mean that we should avoid statistics altogether?
Well, that’s where I hope this textbook will help because I believe that statistics are an incredibly useful tool for humans as we try to find “truths” in the world.[1] To that end, it is important to emphasize that when we think of statistics we think of them as tools, and tools are useful when they are being used for the problems they were designed to solve. This means that statistics are not an answer or solution to all problems. And, like most tools, their impact is often greatly influenced by the individual using them.
Additionally, it can be argued that statistics are powerful. However, as the old adage states: “with great power comes great responsibility.” When an individual uses or interprets statistics, it is their responsibility to do it correctly because statistics used or interpreted incorrectly can lead to an inaccurate understanding of the “truth.” In fact, there is a continuing history of humans believing lots of wrong things, and sometimes statistics do play a role in that misunderstanding. And that’s what makes it so important to have a better understanding of the benefits and limitations of statistics.
Statistics and statistical thinking, ultimately, can be thought of as short-cuts that help us inspect and filter this information in order to find the “nuggets of truth.”
In your own lives, you will be presented with a staggering number of statistics, professionally and personally, all providing you with information that can help you make wise decisions. The better you are at deciphering these statistics the better your decisions. In fact, with the amount of information now available to anyone with an Internet connection and a web browser, you have access to more information than all previous generations combined. Thus, there is a need for us to have tools we can use to sift through this data and information. Statistics and statistical thinking, ultimately, can be thought of as short-cuts that help us inspect and filter this information in order to find the “nuggets of truth.”
In the end, statistics, like most things, have their costs and benefits. The key is to use them in a way to maximize the benefits while minimizing the costs. To do this, it is important to be skeptical but not cynical. Cynicism would throw out statistics altogether because they can be misused or misinterpreted; it is lazy. Skepticism would keep statistics available as a tool while being careful in their use and interpretation.
This is a fine line to walk, but if you are successful, you might end up preferring this quote about statistics from Andrejs Dunkels:
It is easy to lie with statistics. It is hard to tell the truth without them.
- It is worth highlighting that this textbook will often refer to "truth" using both quotation marks and a lower-case "t." This is to acknowledge that the search for the accurate answers to our questions is incredibly difficult, and the definition of a "truth" is fraught with nuances, conditions, etc., so it is helpful to remember that we might not actually find The Truth. Yet, the search for "truths" is ultimately a understandable endeavor, and it is important to acknowledge that as the goal. ↵
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