58 5.5 DEVELOPING CAUSAL STORIES
DEVELOPING CAUSAL STORIES
Establishing causality during the design phase is imperative for the long-term success of a policy. Deborah Stone (2002) divides causal stories into four separate categories: accidental, intentional, mechanical, and inadvertent. Accidental causes refer to problems caused by accident, fate, or luck, such as natural disasters. Fires, hurricanes, floods, and sometimes ill health are consequences of phenomena that are not the fault of any person or group. In direct contrast with accidental causes, intentional causes can be attributed to a person or group who knowingly caused harm. Companies that chose to increase profits rather than control pollution (Bragdon & Marlin, 1972) or cigarette manufacturers who sold tobacco products after receiving evidence that cigarettes were harmful (Brandt, 2012) are examples of intentional causal stories.
Mechanical causes “include things that have no will of their own but are designed, programmed, or trained by humans to produce certain consequences” (Stone, 2002). First, mechanical causes exist because the actions of a person are guided indirectly by an “intervening agent,” or people are acting automatically to carry out the will of others. This type of action is often attributed to bureaucratic officials who, instead of using their own discretion, will follow a strict interpretation of a
policy. Mechanical causes can also be attributed to mechanical errors. In 2018, the state of Hawaii sent out a terrifying emergency alert message warning of an incoming ballistic missile threat. The threat was not real; the emergency alert was sent by accident, but it caused a wave of panic among residents and tourists alike. While the direct cause of the mistake was human error, officials blamed its delayed correction on a flaw in the alert system (Nagourney et al., 2018).
Causal stories also include inadvertent causes or the unintended consequences of well-meaning policies. Policymakers often believe that a particular policy will address the actual cause of a problem, but the result is an unintended consequence. For example, proponents of globalization and free trade argue that policies promoting these practices will lower costs and foster competition, there- by encouraging economic advancement in developing countries. As an unintended consequence, though, some free trade policies led to an increase in the wealth gap, exploitation of workers and the environment, and companies moving their operations to other countries (Osland, 2003). The goal of the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 (NCLB) was to close achievement gaps and provide students with a fair and equal opportunity for a quality education. The emphasis placed by NCLB on bringing all students up to general competency levels in reading and math resulted in a decrease in funding for programs for gifted education programs (Beisser, 2008), and on “teaching to the test,” marginalizing such subjects as art, history, and music (Guilfoyle, 2006). When designing policy, policymakers attempt to anticipate un- intended consequences to the best of their ability. Of course, it is impossible to anticipate every consequence, but creative and critical thinking about policy out- comes can mean the difference between success and failure.
