59 5.6 ESTABLISHING CAUSALITY
ESTABLISHING CAUSALITY
Causality is critical in the policy design process because establishing causality helps policymakers demonstrate how the effort expended affects a specific outcome. Think of the causal model as you might a formula: “If we do X, then Y will definitely happen.” Causal stories can be simple; for example, “if I spill my drink on my lap, my pants will be wet,” or “if I adopt another cat from the animal shelter, my mother will be angry.” In each case, action results in an easily identifiable reaction. By applying these examples to public problems, though, we see that reactions may or may not be easy to identify. Consider the opioid addiction crisis. In order to solve the problem of opioid addiction, policymakers must create a causal link between the crisis and the reasons why the crisis developed. At one time, prescription pain pills were only available to cancer patients, and now one might argue that easy availability of prescription pain pills caused increases in addiction. The Centers for Disease Control reports that drug overdose deaths involving prescription opioids rose from 3,442 in 1999 to 17,029 in 2017. These figures correspond with a more aggressive marketing strategy among pharmaceutical companies in the late 1990s, who misrepresented the safety of prescription pain pills by assuring doctors that their patients would not become addicted (Center on Addiction).
Once a real cause and effect relationship has been established, policymakers can then develop a clear description of the problem and propose a solution. This is not a simple task—policy solutions are complex. Sometimes policymakers can anticipate the consequences of their actions, and sometimes they cannot. Developing an accurate causal story requires exploring the root cause of an issue thoughtful- ly. Public problems are often symptoms of what is lying below the surface. Anyone developing a causal model must first identify the factors that contribute to the emergence of a problem and then treat the source of those problems using avail- able options. The following are basic steps for establishing causality.
Figure 5.3: Creating Causal Stories to Solve Policy Problems
Source: Original Work Attribution: Kimberly Martin License: CC BY-SA 4.0
Demonstrate that the cause happened or will happen before the effect and rule out other plausible alternative explanations. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) successfully made the case to Congress that lowering speed limits on highways would increase safety. When establishing causality, it is essential to rule out other cause and effect relationships. For instance, the condition of highways or driver distraction could all lead to decreased safety. Consequently, the IIHS did their research and compared outcomes before and after lower speed limits took effect in certain cities. They found that lower limits lead to a significant decline in speeding tickets and collisions (2019).
Demonstrate a relationship between two concepts. The causal model formula stated that “if we do X, then Y will happen.” If you observe that whenever X is present, Y is also present, and that whenever X is absent, Y is also absent, then a relationship between the two concepts is confirmed. In the previous speed limit example, IIHS researchers were able to prove that when lower speed limits took effect (X), fewer speeding tickets and accidents occurred (Y). Without lower speed limits, drivers continued to speed and get into accidents.
